The 40 Greatest Quarterbacks in Pro Football History

Football historian and Broncos Country Tonight's statistician, Ryan Michael, is an excellent resource for all things quarterbacks.

Every year, for nearly a decade now, Michael has released his updated rankings of the 40 best quarterbacks in NFL history. Here are his rankings, and the methodology behind him, in our first guest-written article:

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For the last eight years, I’ve undertaken the impossible challenge of ranking the greatest quarterbacks in pro football history. 

Different players, with different styles, from different eras, with different accomplishments. This impossible task is riddled with questions:

• How can you possibly compare Sammy Baugh to Patrick Mahomes? 
• What is more important: Putting up big numbers or winning championships?
• What do you value more: Longevity or efficiency? 
• What exactly are your criteria?

To even have a discussion, I feel it’s important to define my interpretation of the word greatest as it pertains to this list. 

Greatest has been defined as, “highest in quality”, “of the highest degree” and “of superior performance.” 

This list is rooted in on-field performance at the position, which is not to be mistaken for being rooted purely in statistics. 

Inside the Numbers

Mahomes put up great statistics in 2020 (108.2 passer rating, 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns to six interceptions). Was that more impressive than what Russell Wilson put up in a less supportive situation (105.1 passer rating, 4,212 yards, 40 touchdowns to 13 interceptions)?

Not necessarily. 

Statistics are a footprint of on-field performance, but context is everything. 

For instance, Len Dawson put up much better traditional passing statistics than Joe Namath. Dawson’s career 94-57-8 record, three AFL Championships and one Super Bowl win easily top Namath’s 62-63-4 record, one AFL Championship and one Super Bowl win. 

If my list were purely statistics-based, Namath probably wouldn’t be a part of it. Context I considered:

• Collectively, Dawson’s Chiefs were a lot better than Namath’s Jets. 
• Namath threw more picks, but he had elite-level sack avoidance and fumbled a lot less than Dawson did – things that are not reflected in traditional passing statistics. 
• Namath was robbed of his prime due to injuries, battled through them and dominated on the NFL stage after the merger: leading the league in passing yards, touchdown passes and adjusted net yards per passing attempt in 1972.

In the end, only one of the two Hall of Famers made my top-40 list.

Inside the Film Room

There is a reason why defensive coaches study the all-22 film when preparing to play opposing quarterbacks. I can speak from my own experience, having had the privilege of working as a defensive assistant coach in both the Indoor Football League (IFL) and the European League of Football (ELF). Without coach’s film to study, I would not be able to do my job. Scouting the responsibilities and execution of all eleven players on each side of the football is a tremendous challenge, requiring skill refined with many years of training and repetition. 

I’ve watched every snap Peyton Manning took as a Denver Bronco, every snap Tom Brady took as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer and every snap Drew Brees took during the final four years of his career. 

Brady was the best decision-maker I’ve ever seen play the game. His pre-snap ability to read body language, understand tendencies, anticipate blitzes and know where the open spot on the field would be was otherworldly. 

Brees was the most accurate passer I’ve ever seen play the game. He understood the limitations of his arm strength post-labrum surgery and refined his pocket presence and passing mechanics to make sure that he didn’t eat sacks or waste passing attempts. In the short to intermediate range, he tore defenses to pieces by playing a game of percentages, becoming a sharpshooter unlike anything the sports has seen before or since. 

Manning was the greatest information processor I’ve ever seen play the game. He didn’t just understand defensive schemes, diagnose pressures and give instructions to teammates at the line of scrimmage, he manipulated opponents into and out of position before the snap so that he could come at their throats the moment he touched the football.

The Difficulty of Judging Individual Players in Team Sports

When evaluating quarterbacks, a B+ performance in an A+ situation resulting in a win isn’t going to impress me as much as an A+ performance in a C+ situation resulting in a win or loss. 

This mindset might seem controversial to some, but for me, it’s pretty straightforward. 

The most important thing is winning, which presents a tremendous challenge when ranking any individual player in team sports.

Everyone acknowledges that not all quarterbacks are provided with comparable opportunities, situations and support. If we’re in agreement there, how can team success bereft of context be the ultimate measure when ranking them?

For me, it cannot.

Most people agree on the extremes: It can’t just be about rings – few would rank Jim Plunkett and his two Super Bowl wins above Dan Marino’s ringless fingers. By contrast, it can’t be just about statistics either – few would rank Blake Bortles’ 2015 season (4,738 total yards and 37 total touchdowns with a 5-11 record) above Troy Aikman’s 20 touchdown pass, Super Bowl-winning campaign in 1993.

It’s not the extremes that create confusion, it’s the grey area. Where good is good enough so long as the team achieves their ultimate goal as a collective.

That certainly simplifies things.

We often see quarterbacks who may have been the sixth, seventh or eighth-best at the position during a given year celebrated more than their league MVP counterparts so long as they ended the season hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. 

That is where I push back. 

Were said quarterbacks really the greatest at the position from an on-field contribution standpoint or were they simply really good with more help than others, playing in more favorable situations? 

It’s worth noting: Brady (seven), Joe Montana (four), Terry Bradshaw (four) and Troy Aikman (three) combined to win 18 Super Bowls. 

In seasons where their supporting defenses slipped outside of the top eight, they combined to bring home zero rings. 

There’s no ignoring that or pretending it’s a coincidence. 

When a team wins, we can frame individual drives, plays and moments as being ‘clutch’. When a team loses, we can frame individual drives, plays and moments as being ‘chokes’. Both over-simplifications often miss the mark.

So What About the Bling?

Over a decade ago, I asked Fran Tarkenton, “How important is winning a Super Bowl in respect to evaluating a quarterback’s individual contribution to his team’s chances of winning?” I cannot help but think about Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson – both of whom made this list – when reflecting upon that question today. 

14 quarterbacks in my top 40 never won an NFL Championship or Super Bowl. That’s 35% of the list, a fairly staggering number. 

Which isn’t to sell short the significance of the Super Bowls won by say, Jim Plunkett or Eli Manning, both of whom did not make this list. 

It’s simply a matter of acknowledging the highest level of performance at the position, which oftentimes fails to coincide with the timing, coaches, rosters and breaks that produce championships. 

Consider this when diving into the legacies of some of the best ever: Did Brady (2001) and Manning (2015) contribute more to their teams’ chances of winning a Super Bowl than Brady (2007) and Manning (2004) did to theirs? 

Of course not. 

Brady is a three-time NFL MVP, never winning a Super Bowl when he was the best player in the league. 

His five greatest seasons (2007, 2010, 2011, 2017 and 2012) produced zero rings. If you took it a step further and ranked all 21 of his seasons as a qualified starter, only two Super Bowl-winning campaigns (2016 and 2020) would be among the 10 best years of his career. 

Brady played in an NFL-record 10 Super Bowls and his best performance – a 505-yard, three-touchdown, zero-interception, 10.5 yards per attempt performance vs. the Eagles’ fifth-ranked DVOA defense in Super Bowl LII – resulted in a loss. 

The famed 28-3 comeback against Atlanta in Super Bowl LI is the moment most fans remember, but it came against a Falcons defense that ranked 27th in points per game surrendered (the second lowest-ranked unit out of 118 defenses to reach the Super Bowl), in a game where the reigning league MVP, Matt Ryan, lost a coin flip and never participated in overtime. 

That didn’t impress me nearly as much as what he did the following year. 

Regardless of where you rank Brady, I’d argue that the greatest years of his storied career have been overshadowed by lesser seasons where his teammates as a collective answered the bell. 

In other words, the GOAT remains underrated. 

Kicking It Old School

The availability of all-22 film makes it much easier to effectively evaluate quarterbacks today. The advent of analytics, performance measures like DVOA, EPA, Total QBR, PFF grades and beyond, allow us to better quantify the impact of on-field play at the position. 

Unfortunately, resources are not as comprehensive for past generations, so film study (there’s more digitally archived than you’d think), era-adjusted statistics (thank you Pro Football Reference) and conversations I’ve had with players who played with and against these quarterbacks were of considerable importance. 

Hall of Famers Benny Friedman (1927-1934) and Arnie Herber (1930-1940, 1944-45) both deserve recognition as early pioneers of the position, easily worthy of top-40 recognition adjusted for era. 

But due to the extreme limitations in film and statistics from that time, I’ve made the decision to begin my list with quarterbacks entering professional football in 1937, the year Sammy Baugh was drafted sixth overall by the Washington Redskins. 

How Do You Compare?

Different eras presented different strengths, weaknesses, advancements and challenges. 

What is more impressive: Completing a pass against a shutdown corner like Patrick Surtain II with advancements in modern-day technology to help aid preparation or locking eyes with the Fearsome Foursome, absorbing a Deacon Jones “head slap” before completing a pass to a receiver getting mugged in the days before DPI? 

There is no wrong answer here. 

Consider also that football statistics experience inflation alongside the American dollar. 

If Derek Carr (257) eventually eclipses Montana (273) in career touchdown passes, he will not move ahead of “Joe Cool” on my top-40. 

Statistics can be adjusted for era and seeing where a quarterback ranked amongst their peers, season-by-season and all-time after they retire, is a good starting point to level the playing field. 

Baugh was the greatest quarterback of his generation, but was his career more impressive than the third greatest quarterback of the last generation, Aaron Rodgers? 

It’s up for discussion. 

Different Leagues, Different Styles

On my list, you will see quarterbacks like Kurt Warner, whose ceiling (two-time NFL MVP) might top that of Warren Moon, who played the position at an elite level in his own right, and for a much longer period of time (23 years in the CFL and NFL), giving Moon superior longevity. You will also see dynamic dual-threats like Randall Cunningham and Russell Wilson alongside traditional pocket passers like Troy Aikman and Matt Ryan. 

This list ranks the greatest quarterbacks in pro football history and, for me, that includes the NFL (1937-present), AAFC (1946-49), AFL (1960-69), CFL (1937-present) and USFL (1983-1986). While I do consider the NFL to be the best of them all, it’s worth noting that the AAFC of the late 1940s and the AFL of the late 1960s were formidable competition. 

Otto Graham’s dominance in the AAFC, Moon’s dominance in the CFL, and Jim Kelly’s dominance in the USFL all impacted their rankings.

My Criteria: No Perfect Formula

My rankings are ever-evolving and every year, I put in over 100 hours of research. Since I first began these rankings eight years ago, I’d conservatively estimate that I’ve logged over 1,000 hours – going to games, watching coach’s film, crunching numbers, adjusting them for era, reading books and talking with players. 

That doesn’t make my list correct, as there is no such thing as ‘correct’ in this subjective space. Just know that I didn’t put this list together hastily, nor did I rank any of the quarterbacks where I did for the sake of being different. 

My criteria itself is what’s different and I take a lot of pride in the hard work put into this project. 

It’s not just statistics. It’s not just wins, losses and rings. It’s not just regular season performance, postseason performance, championship-game performance or voted-on awards. It’s all of these things, but so much more. Football is the ultimate team sport and there’s really no such thing as individual statistics, awards, wins or championships. It’s a collective effort and it’s a tremendous challenge to attempt to quantify individual impact on the results of team-driven football games. 

With that said and without any further ado, allow me to share with you my rankings for the 40 greatest quarterbacks in pro football history. 

40. Andrew Luck 

39. Josh Allen 

38. Lamar Jackson 

37. Matthew Stafford 

36. Troy Aikman 

35. Randall Cunningham 

34. Ken Anderson 

33. Charlie Conerly 

32. Bobby Layne 

31. Terry Bradshaw

30. Joe Namath 

29. Ken Stabler 

28. Jim Kelly 

27. Philip Rivers 

26. Ben Roethlisberger 

25. Matt Ryan 

24. Norm Van Brocklin 

23. Warren Moon 

22. Kurt Warner 

21. Russell Wilson

20. Bart Starr 

19. Dan Fouts 

18. Sonny Jurgensen 

17. Y.A. Tittle 

16. Sid Luckman 

15. John Elway 

14. Roger Staubach 

13. Steve Young 

12. Patrick Mahomes 

11. Brett Favre 

10. Sammy Baugh

9. Otto Graham 

8. Joe Montana 

7. Fran Tarkenton 

6. Johnny Unitas 

5. Aaron Rodgers 

4. Dan Marino 

3. Tom Brady 

2. Drew Brees 

1. Peyton Manning

Ryan Michael is a pro football historian, a statistician for the Denver Broncos Flagship (KOA’s Broncos Country Tonight) and a Defensive Analyst for the Prague Lions of the ELF. 

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